Calling the South constituency

By Paul Kennedy

Saturday
The people have decided. They have made their intentions clear. They have made their etchings on the paper, that old-school, irreplaceable piece of paper, placed in a box, and now removed, spread out on the table with all its fellow papers sleeves, before the undaunted counters.

Down South way, Munster robbed of fair Clare, the story is the same. We read the papers, we watch the endless Primetime specials, we look as Dobson and Miriam guide us through the blue, red and green bars which detail the scenario as it is at the time. We wait for the occasional 5 minutes of airtime that we have earned, dotted occasionally amid the fevered discussion about Dublin and the Aherns. Our news drips out mostly unnoticed, spare change from the holed pocket, meaningful, but insubstantial when compared to the walleted back pocket of our fair capital.

Three people to be picked. The classic rock trio. 3 blind mice, the Three Stooges. The Beegees. But who are they? Who's our Alvin, Simon and Theodore? We should know come Saturday, unless we come into a Florida situation, and the pieces of paper become tattered and frayed from overuse, the counter's hands bloody and raw, suffering from a similar ailment.

Odds point towards Brian Cowley getting in again. It seems that the tactic of making the Fianna Fáil Logo on the election posters so small that to make it any smaller would suck the poster into a black hole of its own physics-defying creation seems to have payed off.

I think its a bit of a toss-up between Colm Burke and Sean Kelly of Fine Gael getting it, but, if some strange person with a penchant for forced betting put a gun to my head, I would say Sean Kelly will get in. He's a well recognized man, and if you have that and aren't in prison, that's enough. Plus, Burke will be relying on preferences, whereas Sean Kelly will get enough firsts to amble in, beard in full flow.

The last seat is tough to call, but I'm gonna go out on a precariously wobbly limb here and go for Toireasa Ferris. She seems intelligent, she's polling surprisingly well, and a pretty face gets you far these days. Also, there's enough anti-Lisbon talk still going around to edge her over the finish line past Kathy Sinnott and Alan Kelly. Like 'em or loath them, you can't argue that Sinn Féin aren't at least different.

Poor Dan Boyle is just another casualty of thee Fianna Fail 'Lets lump it on the coalition party' syndrome that killed the PDs a couple of years back. Ever notice how the party with just two ministerial posts are always giving us the bad news? Michael McDowell suffered from a similar experience.