Dublin: Who will win?

By Amy Bracken

It’s no secret that Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael and Labour’s Prionsias De Rossa are the favourites to fill two of the European Parliament seats for the Dublin constituency, but who will take the third seat?

Gay Mitchell and Prionsias de Rossa have performed so well in the polls that I am without doubt they will be re-elected with landslide victories. Mr Mitchell’s work for development, which is not simply confined to Europe, and the fact that Fine Gael are by far the most popular party, and Mr De Rossa’s openness regarding his salary and expenses (available on (www.derossa.com) as well as the fact that the Labour Party is currently performing brilliantly in the opinion polls, appear to add to their popularity. But with the number of Dublin seats set to fall from 4 to 3, the race for the 3rd and final seat couldn’t be tighter. My work for Youth Media for Europe has given me a great insight into the campaigns of all the candidates and has set me thinking about this burning question.

Despite the obvious contempt for Fianna Fail considering the current economic climate, I’m optimistic for Eoin Ryan. While the reports claim that Fianna Fail are in for a disastrous result in the elections, I think Mr Ryan’s large campaign, his experience and his own individual achievements are enough to relieve him of the current criticism of his party. Combined with the fact that his self-noted greatest achievements from his five years in parliament are to do with monetary matters, considering the current financial climate, it is my belief that he is a probable contender for the 3rd and final seat.

My work for Youth Media for Europe has shown that popularity for Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein has been undermined by her low attendance record. Ms McDonald has noted her maternity leave as being the reason for her ranking as the 13th worst attendee of the Parliament, but this argument was shunned last week when it was revealed that the figures on www.candidatewatch.ie/ are actually based on numbers derived from 2008.

Despite the polls showing that Sinn Fein are amongst the most popular parties in the country, it appears that the electorate are more interested in individual attributes as opposed to party loyalties when it comes to the European elections.

As for the first-timers - Caroline Simons (Libertas), Senator Deirdre De Búrca (The Green Party), Eibhlin Byrne (Fianna Fail), and Joe Higgins (The Socialist Party), I have seen little in the way of campaigning in the case of the latter 2, and I think this will be costly for them. They have not been very responsive when contacted, and thus if they are not seeking publicity it is probable that this will impact negatively on them.

Thus, first count: Prionsias de Rossa, second count: Gay Mitchell, third count: Eoin Ryan?

Only Sunday’s results will tell.