The Irish language: céard é seo?

By Elaine Ni Canny

The Irish language is "no use". That was the one of the comments from some Leaving Certificate students in Galway this week. With fears growing that the Irish language is dying out, it is one of the major issues that needs to be taken into consideration when the Irish youth goes to vote this Friday. Thousands of young people think Irish is more a useless subject at school rather than a recognised working language by the EU.

Speaking with Paschal Mooney on the importance of maintaining interest and awareness of the language "we led a robust campaign in getting the EU to recognise the Irish language as a working language, as a senator myself I was involved in this campaign, even though there is limited time for debating purposes, I would urge MEPs from Ireland to use Irish more frequently. I am not a native speaker myself, my conversational Irish is basic, but as an MEP I would ensure that the Irish language, as a wider cultural dimension that Ireland brings to the EU is not only respected but protected".

Jessica Kenny, a Leaving Certificate student from Galway said "I enjoy Irish as a subject but to be honest, after I do my Irish paper one and two next week, I’m never going to use it again, I’ll have no need to, no one from my area speaks it, and after all English is really our primary language".

Celebrities like Hector, Des Bishop and the Seoige sisters have helped make Irish appear more ‘appealing’ or ‘ cool’ to an extent but do we need some more political heads to further this link with celebrity and Irish.

Joe Canny, also a Leaving Certificate student, said "the likes of Hector have made Irish seem cool, but they still haven’t made young people want to put any effort into using Irish as a working language, only for my mother is a native speaker, I would never have even bothered putting an effort into the language, I still find it one of the hardest subjects that I’m facing in the Leaving Cert, and I don’t think I’ll ever be in a situation where I’ll need to use it".

Fine Gael MEP Jim Higgins was sure to put his Irish skills to use when he visited the Aran Islands on his canvassing trail. He encouraged his young canvassing team to use the Irish as their primary language in respect to Ireland and its Gaeltacht areas. So it appears that the Irish language needs some more attention in making young people want to use it and not just because they have to in school . The European elections take place on Friday 5 June.

Jim Higgins using his Irish skills canvassing in the Aran Islands

Give me a Job, and then i'll vote for you!

By Elaine Canny

With only a matter of hours away until Super Friday, it is hoped by all political candidates that the youth of Ireland use their vote in making their mark in Ireland today. According to a study carried out, over 70% of young people will not use their vote. Young people are becoming more and more disengaged with politics, viewing it as "corrupt" and "boring". With the current economic climate it’s more important than ever for young people to get out and enforce a change in politics whether it be local, national or Europe. The dole figures are on the rise and have reached record numbers. Unemployment levels are accelerating at uncontrollable speeds and thousands of young graduates are leaving the country. This summer Ireland is facing losing its most skilled youth.

Earlier this year, the Taoiseach predicted that 400,000 people would sign on. At this stage those figures are steadily being met. FÁS predicts unemployment will increase to 12% by this time next year. In December the ESRI predicted unemployment would rise to 10% in 2009.

Speaking with Fianna Fail MEP candidate Paschal Mooney, he has urged the youth to get out and use their vote. Referring to young people, unemployment was the main issues Paschal came up against in his campaign .

"I believe national government plays a vital role in creating training placements for graduates coming out of colleges with limited employment opportunities, i don’t think they have responded as adequately as they should have, but i do accept there was budget constraints that have impacted adversely in that. The European Union’s social fund provides 45% of the overall budget which is directed at youth employment, training and up skilling and i believe that is the way newly elected MEPs should challenge the fund in creating employment. This constituency (North West) has a great entrepreneurial spirit with 55% of employment coming from small enterprise businesses. I would be a strong advocate in supporting training places for young people. Many people have been living on the margin despite the Celtic Tiger, there is a lot of talent among the youth in this area i would hate to see that wasted, (...) it could come back to haunt us one day."

Aisling, a recent Civil engineering graduate of GMIT, Galway says ‘"I think more emphasis has to be put on students and what happens after they graduate, something needs to be put in place in order to get us to the next level of our careers, there are no jobs out there, I’m facing into the dole queues , it wasn’t the outcome i expected four years ago when i took up my course. If politicians want us to become more aware of them, they should start helping us out".

Thousands of students are leaving the country by the day, in the hope of finding work and a better life elsewhere. Ireland once upon a time was a booming economy with a skilled and ambitious workforce that had the potential to take this country beyond its limits. Now it’s a country left ravaged and burned by an incompetent government who failed to watch for the iceberg. Voting begins tomorrow in the North West.

Wanted: Irish in the European Parliament

By Gabrielle Campion

75% of candidates for the European Elections said that they would speak Irish in the Parliament in Brussels. They said this whilst answering a Survey lead by Conradh na Gaeilge which was published last week.

Many people have many different reasons for choosing a candidate to vote for – what they would do for the elderly, their policies for the environment etc., and for some the Irish language is the most important factor as they make their decision.

Peadar Mac Fhearghusa, President of Conradh na Gaeilge said that the current Members of the European Parliament are setting a good example with regards to speaking Irish, and that it gave reason for hope to the Conradh and to the Irish speaking community that most of the candidates in this current election are as willing to do this also if they are elected. “Tá dea-shampla ó thaobh labhairt na Gaeilge léirithe ag iar-fheisirí na hEorpa cheana, agus is ábhar dóchais don Chonradh agus do phobal na Gaeilge é go bhfuil tromlach na n-iarrthóirí sa toghchán seo chomh toilteanach, sásta céanna tabhairt faoin nGaeilge a labhairt i bParlaimint na hEorpa má thoghtar iad.”

In order to clarify each candidates stance on this issue, Conradh na Gaeilge made contact with the candidates of the major parties. This is as part of the Conradh’s campaign to encourage people to vote for candidates who are willing to support the Irish language in Europe.

Conradh na Gaeilge asked the candidates two separate questions:
1. (a) If you are elected as a Member of the European Parliament, are you willing to speak
Irish regularly and as common practice in Parliament?
nó
(b) If you are not comfortable with your own standard of Irish, will you improve upon your
level of Irish by taking classes or a self‐taught online course so as to ensure that you will have
sufficient Irish to represent Ireland in the EU using the country's first national language?
2. Will you campaign to end the derogation in
place with regard to the Irish language's status in
the EU, by putting pressure on the EU and the
Government of Ireland to achieve this?

Of the 75% of candidates who answered positively, 27% of them said that they were using Irish already in either the European Parliament, Dáil Éireann or the county council. 70% said that they would improve their Irish if elected. The final 3% said that they had fluent Irish and were looking forward to using it in the parliament.

55% of the candidates said that they would help campaign to put an end to the derogation with regard to the status of Irish in the EU. This derogation means that the European Union only has to translate laws passed by the Council of Ministers and the Parliament together into Irish.

Only one candidate who answered the survey said that he would not speak Irish in the Parliament and that he would not make any effort to improve his Irish in order to do so.

Candidates’ answers and more information is available on the Conradh na Gaeilge website, www.cnag.ie

Ag Teastáil: An Ghaeilge sa Phairlimint Eorpach

Le Gabrielle Campion

Dúirt 75% d’iarrthóirí sa Toghchán Eorpach go labhróidís an Ghaeilge sa Pharlaimint sa Bhruiséil. Dúirt siad é seo agus iad ag freagairt súirbhé de chuid Chonradh na Gaeilge a foilsíodh an tseachtain seo caite.
Bíonn fáthanna ar leith ag baint le gach rogha iarrthóra, mar shampla, na rudaí a dhéanfadh siad ar son seandaoine, na polasaíthe atá acu mar gheall ar an timpeallacht srl. agus do dhaoine áirithe, bíonn an Ghaeilge mar bhunchloch a rogha.

Mar gheall ar an nGaeilge sa pharlaimint cheana féin, dúirt Pádraig Mac Fhearghusa, Uachtarán Chonradh na Gaeilge, “Tá dea-shampla ó thaobh labhairt na Gaeilge léirithe ag iar-fheisirí na hEorpa cheana, agus is ábhar dóchais don Chonradh agus do phobal na Gaeilge é go bhfuil tromlach na n-iarrthóirí sa toghchán seo chomh toilteanach, sásta céanna tabhairt faoin nGaeilge a labhairt i bParlaimint na hEorpa má thoghtar iad.”
Chun seasamh gach iarrthóir a shoiléiriú, chuaigh Conradh na Gaeilge i dteagmháil leis na hiarrthóirí ó na príomhpháirtithe polaitíochta mar chuid d’fheachtas atá ar bun acu. Tá siad ag iarraidh ar an bpobal tacaíocht a thabhairt do na hiarrthóirí is mó a bhfuil sásta tacú leis an nGaeilge san Eorap.
D’iarr an Conradh dhá cheist difriúla ar na hiarrthóirí
1. (a) Má thoghtar mar chomhalta de Pharlaimint na hEorpa tú, an labhróidh tú Gaeilge go rialta agus mar ghnáthchleachtas sa Pharlaimint?
nó
(b) Muna bhfuil tú compordach le caighdeán do chuid Gaeilge, an gcuirfidh tú feabhas ar do chuid Gaeilge trí ranganna Gaeilge a ghlacadh / cúrsa féin‐foghlaim ar líne a dhéanamh chun a chinntiú go mbeidh do dhóthain Gaeilge agat chun ionadaíocht a dhéanamh ar Éirinn san Aontas Eorpach ag baint úsáid as an bpríomhtheanga náisiúnta?

2. An gcabhróidh tú le deireadh a chur leis an maolú maidir le stádas na Gaeilge san Aontas Eorpach (AE) trí bhrú a chur ar Rialtas na hÉireann agus ar an Aontas Eorpach chuige sin?

Ón 75% d’iarrthóirí a d’fhreagair go dearfach, dúirt 27% acu go bhfuil siad ag úsáid na Gaeilge sa Pharlaimint, sa Dáil nó sa Chomhairle Chontae cheana féin. Dúirt 70% acu go gcuiridís feabhas ar a gcuid Gaeilge má thoghfar iad. Dúirt an 3% eile go raibh an Ghaeilge go líofa acu cheana agus go raibh siad ag súil léí a húsáid sa pharlaimint.
Dúirt 55% de na hiarrthóirí go gcabhróidís le deireadh a chur leis an maolú maidir le stádas na Gaeilge san Aontas Eorpach. Is éard atá i gceist leis an maolú seo ná nach mbíonn ar an Aontas Eorpach gach dlí a chur ar fáil as Gaeilge ach amháin rialacháin a dhéanann Comhairle na nAirí agus Parlaimint na hEorpa in éineacht a chéile.

Dúirt duine amháin de na hiarrthóirí a d’fhreagair an ceistiúchán nach labhródh sé an Ghaeilge agus nach ndéanfadh sé iarracht feabhas a chur ar a chuid Gaeilge chun é seo a dhéanamh.

Tá freagraí na n-iarrthóirí uilig agus tuilleadh eolais ar fáil ar shuíomh idirlín Chonradh na Gaeilge www.cnag.ie

Europe- It’s the Final Countdown

By Dónal Hassett

Swedish 80’s pop band ‘Europe’ provide us with a fitting title for our final look at the Dublin constituency in the upcoming Euro-elections. As we enter the week of “The Final Countdown” the time has come to ask to whom the voters of our fair city will by saying “farewell”.

Few if any punters would dispute that Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell and Labour’s Proinsias de Rossa are home and dry in these elections. The real contest is to be seen in the three way battle for the final seat between sitting MEPs, Fianna Fáil’s Eoin Ryan and Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald, and Socialist Party leader Joe Higgins. While this seat is looking increasingly hard to call, there is no doubt but that transfers will dictate the outcome.

Eoin Ryan is sure to attract transfers from his running mate, Dublin Lord Mayor, Eibhlin Byrne but these alone will not be enough to save his seat. Fianna Fail's coalition partners, the Green Party, have refused to call for a voting pact but Deirdre de Burca’s transfers are Eoin Ryan’s last hope. The other pro-Lisbon candidates, Gay Mitchell and Prionsias De Rossa, will not have large surpluses to transfer on to Eoin Ryan so Ryan is reliant on a high middle-class vote running scared of Sinn Fein and the Socialists and transfers from the Green candidate. While Eoin Ryan has quite the reputation as the comeback kid, it’s hard to see how Fianna Fail can salvage this seat with the tide so against them.

This leaves a two-horse race between Joe Higgins, the old socialist stalwart, and Sinn Fein's Vice-President Mary Lou Mc Donald for what some have called the ‘anti-Lisbon’ seat. While Sinn Fein are known to find it hard to attract transfers the Socialists are not immune to this phenomenon either. Polls indicate that Mary Lou is set to gain around 13% of the first preference vote putting her 4% ahead of Joe Higgins. It’s hard to see how Higgins will be able to narrow this gap as preferences from anti-Lisbon campaigner Patricia Mc Kenna are likely to be split between the two candidates.

So as the Day of Reckoning approaches, it seems that Eoin Ryan will be staying at home in Dublin come June 7th while the rest of Dublin’s Euro-team will be returning to Brussels and Strasbourg. However, as we all know, the only poll that can be trusted is the one on election day.

Northern Ireland report

The Northern Ireland team met with Ian Parsley of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland...

Who are they?

Report by Emma Mundy, North West correspondent



Camerman: Kevin Fagan
Editor: Tom Griffin

Donegal report

Report by Emma Mundy, North West correspondent

Eoghan Dockrell meets Patricia McKenna

Eoghan Dockrell, Dublin correspondent, caught up with Patricia McKenna during the week...

Taoiseach Brian Cowen: Fianna Fáil "not flavour of the month"

Dublin correspondent Eoghan Dockrell met with Taoiseach Brian Cowen to hear his views on youth voter apathy and Fianna Fáil's prospects in the European elections...

Only time will tell...

By Ruth Feeley

With mere hours to go before the country casts its vote and dictates the future of the ever hopeful politicians, little indications have been made as to who may make the victorious scoop.

Between talking to random members of the public, as well as keeping an eye on the campaign trail, I have a suspicion that Fianna Fail’s Eoin Ryan may be blowing a sorry kiss goodbye to his seat in Europe. Only yesterday, a leisurely walk along the river Liffey told a telling story with all of Eoin Ryan’s posters defaced to paint a negative picture. Posters, where he claimed to be for jobs from Europe, were instead covered with the print “I am for MY job in Europe.” Others were covered in taglines such as "Fianna Fail got us into this mess” and so on. Not that it is necessarily a personal unease with Mr. Ryan, but the fact that he is attached to the ever decreasingly popular Fianna Fail will do him no favours.

Labour MEP Proinsias De Rossa is a safe bet, or so I feel. He has mostly avoided making his campaign an attack on all opposition and I think his graceful approach will serve him well. He has highlighted some major issues in his campaign which may be trickier to result in positive changes, but the country needs a man that will fight for important causes, such as the country’s problems with drugs.

Gay Mitchell has the added advantage of being affiliated with Fine Gael who are enjoying increasing popularity and this will in no doubt benefit his chances.

And then there was one. And though I loathe to admit it, I feel that Green Party Senator Deirdre De Burca will be lucky enough to seize the much sought after third seat. I feel that her campaign has revealed an unattractive side, with ruthless attacks on her opposition, yet elements of the Green campaign strike many as very important and that is what will count come D-Day.

The elusive third party

By Sam Law, Feresha Bayramova and Katie Murphy

An open race for Northern Ireland's third seat

Although the political status quo in the North can hardly be said to have changed drastically over the period of this European election, there have been several significant political developments; the split of the Unionist vote has left the previously unthinkable prospect of Sinn Féin becoming the country’s biggest party a looming possibility, the hard-line power race between the DUP and TUV has done nothing but intensify (perhaps at the expense of the peace process) and the lot of smaller parties has been potentially significantly reduced (the previously significant SDLP having slipped further into that category too).

It’s interesting to make a prediction about who’ll win seats, primarily in the context of which of the two heavy hitters will come out on top. Although both de Brun and Dodds will hardly worry about having positions come Monday morning, there could be a fascinating change in power-dynamic if the former comes out on top. Further, the availability of the third position remains remarkably up in the air. Although the UUP/Conservative Jim Nicholson remains favourite to pick up the seat, the unknown quantity of the Allister/TUV vote could potentially (and many nationalists will remark, hopefully) cause more of an even divide with the heavily-criticised UUP, clearing the way for Alban McGuinness to seize the outside chance and the open third seat.

Dublin MEP prediction

By Eoghan Dockrell

Despite the two candidates' protestations that their seats are not safe, both Labour's Proinsias De Rossa and Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell will (exempting some last minute campaign implosion) easily secure a seat in the European Parliament.

The next question to be tackled is who will snatch the final seat. For a while it appeared to be a two horse race between Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin and Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fail. Certainly the media covered the election as if this were the case. However, the most recent opinion polls suggest Socialist party candidate, Joe Higgins is hot on Mary Lou’s heels and will be in the fray right until the bitter end.

I think Eoin Ryan will fail to triumph over his rivals. Firstly, given his association with Fianna Fáil, he will struggle to attract the transfers or preferences desperately needed to push him past the post. His chances will be further weakened by perhaps the poor party strategy of fielding two Fianna Fail candidates in an already crowded race and in an environment not amenable to candidates connected with the Government's parties. Nor will the notoriously efficient Fianna Fail campaign machine be able to galvanise sufficient support to do the business for their candidate.

Ultimately, I think Mary Lou will snatch the final seat. At the end of the count everything will hinge on the amount of preferences and transfers the two candidates can attract. My view is that Mary Lou’s pile will be bigger. Generally speaking, neither party is the preferred choice for moderate voters when it comes to allocating preferences. Looking at past elections, Joe Higgins has garnered few transfers in comparison to other candidates. In this area Mary Lou should have the edge and by extension, find herself in a better position when the count is concluded.

Tonight Matthew, I'm going to be....an MEP

By Kate Manning

From the recent TNS/MRBI poll the East Constituency looks to be easily predictable. Mairead McGuinness (Fine Gael) is a certainty and has been from day one of the campaign trail. She will embark on her second term in the European Parliament and deservedly so.

Having spent time with Mairead in Brussels this March, it’s clear she is dedicated to Europe and works extremely hard. It became apparent quite early on in my trip to Brussels that her peers, not just from Ireland, hold her in high regard. She will most definitely spend the next five years in the European Parliament. However, I don’t believe she will secure her seat by as great a margin as the previous polls have suggested as a vote management strategy by Fine Gael in the south of the constituency will see many people transferring their votes to John Paul Phelan

Liam Aylward (Fianna Fáil) is another certainty. Having performed well in the opinion polls, he has a lot of support in the constituency particulary in the Carlow/Kilkenny area. He too has worked hard and deserves his seat. I spent some time with him also in Brussels and I was impressed with how passionately he spoke about Europe and his role in the Parliament. Also with Fianna Fail possibly about to bear the brunt of the nations anger, diehard supporters of the party will make sure Liam gets the vote.

Nessa Childers (Labour) also looks set to take a seat. She launched a successful campaign and I think a lot of people will vote for her because of her father. I met her briefly and was not impressed at her dismissive nature. Maybe it is because I’m young but at the end of the day I still have a vote. Also while on air in KCLR the Carlow/Kilkenny radio station, she made a serious mistake by saying she did not “have a huge knowledge about agriculture”. Unfortunately agriculture is an essential part of the EU. Regardless of this matter, she does look like the favourite to win the third seat, just ahead of John Paul Phelan.

Being a young voter, I would have liked to have seen John Paul Phelan take the last seat. His age plays a big part in this as does his honesty about not knowing everything about Europe but being willing to learn. I thought that would have been a journey all younger voters could embark on with him if he were successful. No doubt he would have raised awareness for the EU here in Ireland. Unfortunately, it looks unlikely that he will succeed. Pity though.


So my prediction: Mairead McGuinness, Liam Aylward and Nessa Childers to take the three seats.

Alan Kelly to just make it, with Brian Crowley and Seán Kelly topping the poll down South!

By Séamus Mac Suibhne

The best approach to predicting an election is to probably adopt an age old exam tip, something that young people everywhere will have heard countless times. Answer what you know first, tackle the difficult subjects later. So one prediction I can safely make is that Brian Crowley will once again be elected as an MEP for the South. The anti-Fianna Fáil sentiment that’s sweeping through the country at present seems to have had no effect whatsoever on his popularity as he’s been constantly polling well above all other candidates down South. This is nothing new of course. Since first being elected in 1994 he has been re-elected twice since, with a very high percentage of the vote on both occasions. Not only is he leader of the Fianna Fail delegation in the European Parliament, he is also president of the European Party UEN (Union of Europe of the Nations). He is arguably Ireland’s preeminent and most experienced member of the European Parliament, with a prolific political career in Europe behind him. Barring a complete catastrophe, he will definitely be the first to be elected.

Another safe answer I can give is that Fine Gael will definitely have a candidate elected. The only question is who. Based on polling data to date, and with a much greater profile amongst the ordinary public, I’d have to go for Seán Kelly to get elected next. Having served as president of the GAA, even those with little or no interest in politics will at least recognise the face and name come June 5th. He will certainly appeal to a wider audience as a result of this, and may be seen more as an “honest daycent fella” as opposed to “wan of those politicians”. This should be enough to see off sitting MEP Colm Burke for the Fine Gael seat.

The final safe answer I can give is to tell you who I think definitely won’t get elected. Firstly, neither Maurice Sexton nor Dr. Alexander Stafford has any chance of getting elected, although Dr. Stafford has run an impressive campaign to date. Ned O’Keeffe TD has no realistic chance of being elected either, with any votes for Brian Crowley unlikely to contain transfers to himself, as the majority of voters will be voting for Brian Crowley personally as opposed to voting for Fianna Fail this time around.

Senator Dan Boyle of the Green Party will have to contend with some of the “collateral damage” of an unpopular government, as he put it himself, and will have no chance of being elected either. Cllr Toireasa Ferris of Sinn Féin should ultimately come up short, as Sinn Fein would hardly be expected to profit from any transfers of votes from either of the main parties. Their staunch anti-Lisbon sentiments may just come back to haunt them in these European elections.

Now this is just like those difficult final parts of questions in an exam. You really wish you could be sure of your answer, but you’re just going to have to give it your best shot and see how it goes! One of Kathy Sinott MEP (Independent), Senator Alan Kelly (Labour) or Colm Burke MEP (Fine Gael) will take the final seat, and I’m going to go for Alan Kelly. I doubt that Colm Burke has the profile outside of Cork to get elected, as he was only appointed to the Parliament in 2007 following Simon Coveney being elected to the Dáil in the general election. So I predict it will be a very close race between Alan Kelly and Kathy Sinott. Riding on the crest of the current Labour wave, I have a gut feeling that Alan Kelly will just make it however. He’s had a very clever and media savvy campaign to date, with everything from rap songs on YouTube to endorsements from ex-Ireland rugby stars, and it should be enough to get the young Senator over the line this weekend.

Who's the fairest of them all?

By Grace Campbell

Mirror, mirror on the wall,

Fine Gael, Labour or Fianna Fáil?

Oh, how the tides have turned. In the run up to the elections in 2004, MEP Mairéad McGuinness was an outside bet when she entered the rat race. Now, in 2009 she is the only sure bet to bag a coveted seat in the East constituency.

Her campaign this year has been strong, active and fearless. The vote count at the weekend is a formality for the “straight talking” MEP. What will interest Fine Gael is not whether Ms. McGuinness gets through or not (that's already a given) but by how much and if she can carry John Paul Phelan over the threshold with her.

Mair ead McGuinness speaking to Grace Campbell in Navan, Co. Meath

Although Fianna Fail, as a party, is not in the most popular position, MEP Liam Aylward looks set to retain his seat in the East. He too has provided constituents with a strong, vigorous campaign and has demonstrated a worthy voice in European negotiations over the last five years.

Can his personality win out over his party? In this case, the deeply rooted Kilkenny man with his political family record will hold onto his unwavering support in the heart of Leinster and be pulled across the finishing line.

Liam Aylward speaking to Grace Campbell in Leixlip, Co. Kildare


The last seat is where the fun really begins. It is a battle between Labour and Fine Gael for the final seat from two candidates who will provide fresh blood in Europe for the East.

Mismanagement of votes could scupper John Paul Phelan's chances of being elected. Nessa Childer’s “Foxrock” image could damage her credibility among agriculturally based voters.

It will depend on whether voters want Fine Gael dominance for the East in Europe again or a change with Labour's perspective in the pot for good measure.

John Paul Phelan vs. Nessa Childers


McGuinness, Aylward and Childers is the combination that I believe will come out on top for the East constituency. Whether this threesome tickles your fancy or boils your blood, you can make a difference by voting on Friday, 5 June.

Sinn Fein will secure seat in the South

By Catherine Moore

There are ten candidates vying for the three seats in the South Constituency.

The candidates are: Dan Boyle of the Green Party, Colm Burke of Fine Gael, Sean Kelly of Fine Gael, Brian Crowley of Fianna Fail, Ned O’Keeffe of Fianna Fail, Kathy Sinnott Independent, Alexander Stafford Independent, Maurice Sexton Independent, Toireasa Ferris of Sinn Féin and Alan Kelly of Labour.

The current seats are held by Brian Crowley Fianna Fail, Kathy Sinnott, Independent and Colm Burke, Fine Gael.

The following are my predictions for the election:

With the current economic situation, and scandals such as the Anglo Irish Bank situation, I do not think Fianna Fail will retain their seat. The feeling on the ground in the South is that people are very unhappy with the current government. Whether the government is the cause or the scapegoat of the recession is debatable. However, what is not debatable is that people are angry at the government and I do not think Brian Crowley will retain his seat.

Crowley will loose his seat to Alan Kelly, Labour. Aside from the recent Irish Times opinion poll showing Labour coming in second to Fine Gael, Alan Kelly has a good solid campaign behind him. Voters are inclined to back this Tipperary man. He is a young fresh candidate which will work in his favour in this time when the country is seeking change. His by now infamous rap song has ensured that younger voters know his name.

Colm Burke of Fine Gael will retain his seat. The Irish Times opinion poll shows Fine Gael topping the poll. There will be a good fight between Burke and Sean Kelly, the other Fine Gael candidate, but I think that Burke, an ex Lord Mayor of Cork, will not be short of support.

Kathy Sinnott, Independent, will lose her seat to Toireasa Ferris, Sinn Fein. Ferris has been very visible and audible throughout the elections. She also has the advantage of being quite easy on the eye and this had definitely caught attention. I saw a conversation on Facebook between two male friends today, saying they were defiantly voting for her because of her "hotness".

On a more serious note though, North Kerry and West and Southern Limerick are traditionally areas where Sinn Fein enjoys much support. Toireasa is young, well educated, opinionated and like Alan Kelly, I think she will benefit from voters wanting change.

Summary of my predictions
1. Colm Burke, Fine Gael
2. Alan Kelly, Labour
3. Toireasa Ferris, Sinn Féin

Who will win the European Elections in the South?

By Owen Gleeson

We were asked by our charges in Youth Media for Europe who in our opinion would win in our constituency. While I could make a decent stab at it; I thought to myself who would I trust more? Automatically, I thought of the bookies. They rarely get it wrong. Here are all the prices from Paddy Power.

Brian Crowley (Fianna Fail) 1/100

Toireasa Ferris (Sinn Fein) 5/1

Dan Boyle (Green) 33/1

Seán Kelly (Fine Gael) 1/100

Colm Burke (Fine Gael) 10/1

Alexander Stafford (Independent) 66/1

Alan Kelly (Labour) 8/15

Ned O'Keeffe (Fianna Fail) 25/1

Maurice Sexton (Independent) 200/1

Kathy Sinnott (Independent) 4/6

So the first two positions are pretty much a dead cert. If you consider that Kerry is 8/15 to win the Munster title then you’re pretty much guaranteed that Crowley and ex GAA man Sean Kelly are in.

But it is the battle for third that offers much better value. I would fancy Kathy Sinnot’s price of 4/6 over Alan Kelly’s 8/15 because she is a current MEP and form is important in any event. However, more importantly an independent has always gotten elected in the South Constituency since the elections have started. Anyone in the gambling world knows consistency is vital.

My tip for the future is Toireasa Ferris who has run a gallant race but will ultimately end outside a place position. She has age on her side which is very important but she is also from a stable outside of the big 3, whose form has been very poor of late. Another important factor in her prospective future chances is that her father has a history of big upsets. He famously beat Dick Spring into fourth place for the much coveted TD spot in the North Kerry elections. I can see his daughter doing well in the future North Kerry elections probably repeating her father’s success there.

The other lads in the race are a bit of gamble. Colm Burke’s preparation hasn’t gone as well as planned. Ned O’Keeffe on the other hand never really got into contention.

And the seat goes too...

By Orla Walsh

Ireland's North West constituency is the biggest in Ireland, spanning 11 counties and four provinces. Many of the European candidates have found the campaign circuit to be a difficult one. Marian Harkin, Independent said she considered it a big challenge and Paschal Mooney, Fianna Fail said: “It's physically impossible to meet every one of the half a million voters.”
With voting taking place this Friday 5 of June there is a lot of speculation as to who will be successful.With thirteen people running for just three seats the competition is high. Below are just some of my opinions as to the results.

I believe that the people of the North West, and Ireland in general, are looking for an alternative, a person who will give them hope in such bleak circumstances. I think that the independents will come in here. Marian Harkin, as a sitting MEP has had the opportunity to work the constituency since 2004 and I think that she will be re-elected through Friday's vote. I personally see her as a very approachable candidate and think she has always been very visible.

If one is to believe the opinion polls that have been circulating in recent months, this election should bring about a huge shift in party popularity. I think that Fianna Fail are going to receive a huge backlash from the current economic situation that we are in here in Ireland. The citizens are angry and I believe they will show this through their vote on Friday. Because of this, I think that Susan O'Keefe, Labour, will prove popular on Friday. I feel the Labour Party is being perceived as the alternative to the bigger parties like Fianna Fail and Fine Gael and has become increasingly popular. Their leader Eamon Gilmore has consistently outstripped his opponents, Enda Kenny and Brian Cowen. I believe that this proves there is a chance that Susan O'Keefe may be elected.

The big question in the North West constituency is whether Fianna Fail or Fine Gael will take up the third seat. In my opinion, Jim Higgins as a sitting MEP holds an advantage over both Paschal Mooney and Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher. He, like Marian Harkin has been able to work in the constituency. I personally feel that he will be successful in retaining his seat.


But in what order? I think that it will be:

1. Marian Harkin

2. Jim Higgins

3. Susan O'Keefe

Hopefully I'm right, thought that's not saying I'd place a bet or anything..!

On your Marks, Get Set

by Mike Bray

According to the bookmakers, the race for who will top the poll in the East constituency is already over. Paddy Power has Mairead Mc Guinness at 1/20 to top the poll and at 1/100 to retain her seat. This is a fine example of how Ms. Mc Guinness’ popularity has grow in five years seeing as she was 20/1 to top the poll in 2004.

Although the polls are where most people look at election time, the bookies are also a great place to look to see who is most likely to win the seat when you consider these people have to earn their living from the odds they put out. Paddy Power feels that the other two seats will go to Liam Aylward (1/10) of Fianna Fail and Labour’s Nessa Childers (1/6). They seem to think the only other candidate with a realistic change to challenging for a seat is Senator John Paul Phelan of Fine Gael.

Nessa Childers has come under pressure in recent week for her lack of knowledge of the agricultural sector in an area were it is at the heart of every debate and the East is also the constituency which returned three candidates with strong agricultural links in 2004. Childers has been very quite in the debates and on the canvass too. I feel her strong poll showings are more a reflection of the national performance of the party and leader Eamon Gilmore rather than Ms. Childers herself.

It’s very hard to know how Liam Aylward will do in the current climate and with the possibly of a strong protest vote against Fianna Fail in one of its heartlands. However I feel that he will just about cross over the line with the help of the transfers’ sponge candidate Thomas Byrne soaks up in the north of the constituency.

Every Tom, Dick and Harry is saying that Mairead McGuinness will not just top the poll but she will cross it with a possible record result. While I feel she will top the poll, I don’t think she will win it as easily as many think (she will still win easily). Many voters will have heard the media saying all she has to do is turn up at the count, but I think many will hear this and feel it may then be a waste of a vote seeing as she is home and dry and decide to give their first preference to another candidate. However McGuinness will still have enough to carry Phelan across the line.

So there it is I’m actually going to go against the bookies and call the three seats for Mairead McGuinness, Liam Aylward and the outside bet of John Paul Phelan.

Calling the South constituency

By Paul Kennedy

Saturday
The people have decided. They have made their intentions clear. They have made their etchings on the paper, that old-school, irreplaceable piece of paper, placed in a box, and now removed, spread out on the table with all its fellow papers sleeves, before the undaunted counters.

Down South way, Munster robbed of fair Clare, the story is the same. We read the papers, we watch the endless Primetime specials, we look as Dobson and Miriam guide us through the blue, red and green bars which detail the scenario as it is at the time. We wait for the occasional 5 minutes of airtime that we have earned, dotted occasionally amid the fevered discussion about Dublin and the Aherns. Our news drips out mostly unnoticed, spare change from the holed pocket, meaningful, but insubstantial when compared to the walleted back pocket of our fair capital.

Three people to be picked. The classic rock trio. 3 blind mice, the Three Stooges. The Beegees. But who are they? Who's our Alvin, Simon and Theodore? We should know come Saturday, unless we come into a Florida situation, and the pieces of paper become tattered and frayed from overuse, the counter's hands bloody and raw, suffering from a similar ailment.

Odds point towards Brian Cowley getting in again. It seems that the tactic of making the Fianna Fáil Logo on the election posters so small that to make it any smaller would suck the poster into a black hole of its own physics-defying creation seems to have payed off.

I think its a bit of a toss-up between Colm Burke and Sean Kelly of Fine Gael getting it, but, if some strange person with a penchant for forced betting put a gun to my head, I would say Sean Kelly will get in. He's a well recognized man, and if you have that and aren't in prison, that's enough. Plus, Burke will be relying on preferences, whereas Sean Kelly will get enough firsts to amble in, beard in full flow.

The last seat is tough to call, but I'm gonna go out on a precariously wobbly limb here and go for Toireasa Ferris. She seems intelligent, she's polling surprisingly well, and a pretty face gets you far these days. Also, there's enough anti-Lisbon talk still going around to edge her over the finish line past Kathy Sinnott and Alan Kelly. Like 'em or loath them, you can't argue that Sinn Féin aren't at least different.

Poor Dan Boyle is just another casualty of thee Fianna Fail 'Lets lump it on the coalition party' syndrome that killed the PDs a couple of years back. Ever notice how the party with just two ministerial posts are always giving us the bad news? Michael McDowell suffered from a similar experience.