By Dónal Hassett
Swedish 80’s pop band ‘Europe’ provide us with a fitting title for our final look at the Dublin constituency in the upcoming Euro-elections. As we enter the week of “The Final Countdown” the time has come to ask to whom the voters of our fair city will by saying “farewell”.
Few if any punters would dispute that Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell and Labour’s Proinsias de Rossa are home and dry in these elections. The real contest is to be seen in the three way battle for the final seat between sitting MEPs, Fianna Fáil’s Eoin Ryan and Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald, and Socialist Party leader Joe Higgins. While this seat is looking increasingly hard to call, there is no doubt but that transfers will dictate the outcome.
Eoin Ryan is sure to attract transfers from his running mate, Dublin Lord Mayor, Eibhlin Byrne but these alone will not be enough to save his seat. Fianna Fail's coalition partners, the Green Party, have refused to call for a voting pact but Deirdre de Burca’s transfers are Eoin Ryan’s last hope. The other pro-Lisbon candidates, Gay Mitchell and Prionsias De Rossa, will not have large surpluses to transfer on to Eoin Ryan so Ryan is reliant on a high middle-class vote running scared of Sinn Fein and the Socialists and transfers from the Green candidate. While Eoin Ryan has quite the reputation as the comeback kid, it’s hard to see how Fianna Fail can salvage this seat with the tide so against them.
This leaves a two-horse race between Joe Higgins, the old socialist stalwart, and Sinn Fein's Vice-President Mary Lou Mc Donald for what some have called the ‘anti-Lisbon’ seat. While Sinn Fein are known to find it hard to attract transfers the Socialists are not immune to this phenomenon either. Polls indicate that Mary Lou is set to gain around 13% of the first preference vote putting her 4% ahead of Joe Higgins. It’s hard to see how Higgins will be able to narrow this gap as preferences from anti-Lisbon campaigner Patricia Mc Kenna are likely to be split between the two candidates.
So as the Day of Reckoning approaches, it seems that Eoin Ryan will be staying at home in Dublin come June 7th while the rest of Dublin’s Euro-team will be returning to Brussels and Strasbourg. However, as we all know, the only poll that can be trusted is the one on election day.
Showing posts with label Call. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Call. Show all posts
Thursday, June 4
Wednesday, June 3
On your Marks, Get Set
by Mike Bray
According to the bookmakers, the race for who will top the poll in the East constituency is already over. Paddy Power has Mairead Mc Guinness at 1/20 to top the poll and at 1/100 to retain her seat. This is a fine example of how Ms. Mc Guinness’ popularity has grow in five years seeing as she was 20/1 to top the poll in 2004.
Although the polls are where most people look at election time, the bookies are also a great place to look to see who is most likely to win the seat when you consider these people have to earn their living from the odds they put out. Paddy Power feels that the other two seats will go to Liam Aylward (1/10) of Fianna Fail and Labour’s Nessa Childers (1/6). They seem to think the only other candidate with a realistic change to challenging for a seat is Senator John Paul Phelan of Fine Gael.
Nessa Childers has come under pressure in recent week for her lack of knowledge of the agricultural sector in an area were it is at the heart of every debate and the East is also the constituency which returned three candidates with strong agricultural links in 2004. Childers has been very quite in the debates and on the canvass too. I feel her strong poll showings are more a reflection of the national performance of the party and leader Eamon Gilmore rather than Ms. Childers herself.
It’s very hard to know how Liam Aylward will do in the current climate and with the possibly of a strong protest vote against Fianna Fail in one of its heartlands. However I feel that he will just about cross over the line with the help of the transfers’ sponge candidate Thomas Byrne soaks up in the north of the constituency.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry is saying that Mairead McGuinness will not just top the poll but she will cross it with a possible record result. While I feel she will top the poll, I don’t think she will win it as easily as many think (she will still win easily). Many voters will have heard the media saying all she has to do is turn up at the count, but I think many will hear this and feel it may then be a waste of a vote seeing as she is home and dry and decide to give their first preference to another candidate. However McGuinness will still have enough to carry Phelan across the line.
So there it is I’m actually going to go against the bookies and call the three seats for Mairead McGuinness, Liam Aylward and the outside bet of John Paul Phelan.
According to the bookmakers, the race for who will top the poll in the East constituency is already over. Paddy Power has Mairead Mc Guinness at 1/20 to top the poll and at 1/100 to retain her seat. This is a fine example of how Ms. Mc Guinness’ popularity has grow in five years seeing as she was 20/1 to top the poll in 2004.
Although the polls are where most people look at election time, the bookies are also a great place to look to see who is most likely to win the seat when you consider these people have to earn their living from the odds they put out. Paddy Power feels that the other two seats will go to Liam Aylward (1/10) of Fianna Fail and Labour’s Nessa Childers (1/6). They seem to think the only other candidate with a realistic change to challenging for a seat is Senator John Paul Phelan of Fine Gael.
Nessa Childers has come under pressure in recent week for her lack of knowledge of the agricultural sector in an area were it is at the heart of every debate and the East is also the constituency which returned three candidates with strong agricultural links in 2004. Childers has been very quite in the debates and on the canvass too. I feel her strong poll showings are more a reflection of the national performance of the party and leader Eamon Gilmore rather than Ms. Childers herself.
It’s very hard to know how Liam Aylward will do in the current climate and with the possibly of a strong protest vote against Fianna Fail in one of its heartlands. However I feel that he will just about cross over the line with the help of the transfers’ sponge candidate Thomas Byrne soaks up in the north of the constituency.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry is saying that Mairead McGuinness will not just top the poll but she will cross it with a possible record result. While I feel she will top the poll, I don’t think she will win it as easily as many think (she will still win easily). Many voters will have heard the media saying all she has to do is turn up at the count, but I think many will hear this and feel it may then be a waste of a vote seeing as she is home and dry and decide to give their first preference to another candidate. However McGuinness will still have enough to carry Phelan across the line.
So there it is I’m actually going to go against the bookies and call the three seats for Mairead McGuinness, Liam Aylward and the outside bet of John Paul Phelan.
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