By Catherine MooreThere are ten candidates vying for the three seats in the South Constituency.
The candidates are: Dan Boyle of the Green Party, Colm Burke of Fine Gael, Sean Kelly of Fine Gael, Brian Crowley of Fianna Fail, Ned O’Keeffe of Fianna Fail, Kathy Sinnott Independent, Alexander Stafford Independent, Maurice Sexton Independent, Toireasa Ferris of Sinn Féin and Alan Kelly of Labour.
The current seats are held by Brian Crowley Fianna Fail, Kathy Sinnott, Independent and Colm Burke, Fine Gael.
The following are my predictions for the election:
With the current economic situation, and scandals such as the Anglo Irish Bank situation, I do not think Fianna Fail will retain their seat. The feeling on the ground in the South is that people are very unhappy with the current government. Whether the government is the cause or the scapegoat of the recession is debatable. However, what is not debatable is that people are angry at the government and I do not think Brian Crowley will retain his seat.
Crowley will loose his seat to Alan Kelly, Labour. Aside from the recent Irish Times opinion poll showing Labour coming in second to Fine Gael, Alan Kelly has a good solid campaign behind him. Voters are inclined to back this Tipperary man. He is a young fresh candidate which will work in his favour in this time when the country is seeking change. His by now infamous rap song has ensured that younger voters know his name.
Colm Burke of Fine Gael will retain his seat. The Irish Times opinion poll shows Fine Gael topping the poll. There will be a good fight between Burke and Sean Kelly, the other Fine Gael candidate, but I think that Burke, an ex Lord Mayor of Cork, will not be short of support.
Kathy Sinnott, Independent, will lose her seat to Toireasa Ferris, Sinn Fein. Ferris has been very visible and audible throughout the elections. She also has the advantage of being quite easy on the eye and this had definitely caught attention. I saw a conversation on Facebook between two male friends today, saying they were defiantly voting for her because of her "hotness".
On a more serious note though, North Kerry and West and Southern Limerick are traditionally areas where Sinn Fein enjoys much support. Toireasa is young, well educated, opinionated and like Alan Kelly, I think she will benefit from voters wanting change.
Summary of my predictions
1. Colm Burke, Fine Gael
2. Alan Kelly, Labour
3. Toireasa Ferris, Sinn Féin
