Only time will tell...

By Ruth Feeley

With mere hours to go before the country casts its vote and dictates the future of the ever hopeful politicians, little indications have been made as to who may make the victorious scoop.

Between talking to random members of the public, as well as keeping an eye on the campaign trail, I have a suspicion that Fianna Fail’s Eoin Ryan may be blowing a sorry kiss goodbye to his seat in Europe. Only yesterday, a leisurely walk along the river Liffey told a telling story with all of Eoin Ryan’s posters defaced to paint a negative picture. Posters, where he claimed to be for jobs from Europe, were instead covered with the print “I am for MY job in Europe.” Others were covered in taglines such as "Fianna Fail got us into this mess” and so on. Not that it is necessarily a personal unease with Mr. Ryan, but the fact that he is attached to the ever decreasingly popular Fianna Fail will do him no favours.

Labour MEP Proinsias De Rossa is a safe bet, or so I feel. He has mostly avoided making his campaign an attack on all opposition and I think his graceful approach will serve him well. He has highlighted some major issues in his campaign which may be trickier to result in positive changes, but the country needs a man that will fight for important causes, such as the country’s problems with drugs.

Gay Mitchell has the added advantage of being affiliated with Fine Gael who are enjoying increasing popularity and this will in no doubt benefit his chances.

And then there was one. And though I loathe to admit it, I feel that Green Party Senator Deirdre De Burca will be lucky enough to seize the much sought after third seat. I feel that her campaign has revealed an unattractive side, with ruthless attacks on her opposition, yet elements of the Green campaign strike many as very important and that is what will count come D-Day.

Dublin MEP prediction

By Eoghan Dockrell

Despite the two candidates' protestations that their seats are not safe, both Labour's Proinsias De Rossa and Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell will (exempting some last minute campaign implosion) easily secure a seat in the European Parliament.

The next question to be tackled is who will snatch the final seat. For a while it appeared to be a two horse race between Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin and Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fail. Certainly the media covered the election as if this were the case. However, the most recent opinion polls suggest Socialist party candidate, Joe Higgins is hot on Mary Lou’s heels and will be in the fray right until the bitter end.

I think Eoin Ryan will fail to triumph over his rivals. Firstly, given his association with Fianna Fáil, he will struggle to attract the transfers or preferences desperately needed to push him past the post. His chances will be further weakened by perhaps the poor party strategy of fielding two Fianna Fail candidates in an already crowded race and in an environment not amenable to candidates connected with the Government's parties. Nor will the notoriously efficient Fianna Fail campaign machine be able to galvanise sufficient support to do the business for their candidate.

Ultimately, I think Mary Lou will snatch the final seat. At the end of the count everything will hinge on the amount of preferences and transfers the two candidates can attract. My view is that Mary Lou’s pile will be bigger. Generally speaking, neither party is the preferred choice for moderate voters when it comes to allocating preferences. Looking at past elections, Joe Higgins has garnered few transfers in comparison to other candidates. In this area Mary Lou should have the edge and by extension, find herself in a better position when the count is concluded.