Life after Libertas

By Dónal Hassett

Few political obituaries provoked as much interest in the wake of this week's Euro-elections as that of the ever-controversial Libertas leader Declan Ganley. Ganley, who burst onto the political scene as leader of, and infamously, chief financier of Libertas' No to Lisbon campaign, is now licking his wounds from his brief and colourful, but ultimately unsuccessful, foray into Irish politics. The Libertas ‘pan-European’ party, Ganley’s brainchild, failed spectacularly in a European elections which saw an increase in support for virtually all right-wing Eurosceptic parties except those standing under the Libertas banner. While party supporters had predicted upwards of 100 seats, the final result was dismal- just one MEP, French ultra-conservative Phillipe de Villiers, was returned to the Parliament for the party. Where did all go wrong for the Ganleyites and their dream of converting Ireland’s No to Lisbon into a Yes to Libertas?

Undoubtedly, Libertas in Ireland was seeking to tap into a resevoir of conservative Catholic traditionalist voters. Ganley’s candidacy in the North West constituency sought to attract the substantial support base of former MEP Dana Rosemary Scallon who stood on a platform of social conservatism and Euroscepticism. In an effort to woo her voters, Ganley attacked his main rival, Independent MEP Marian Harkin by alleging her allies in the European Parliament were all pro-abortion, attempting to undermine Harkin’s self-professed “social conservatism”. However this move backfired when it emerged that a leading candidate for Libertas in the Netherlands had strong links to pro-abortion and even pro-euthenasia groups. While Dana’s endorsement, arriving late as it did, did indeed bouy up the Ganley campaign, it proved too little too late for what was to be an expensive experiment in Irish politics.

What can the Libertas experience tell us about Irish voters? Firstly, it seems evident that the resevoir of conservative Catholic voters is slowly being eroded in the newly modernised Irish society. Not only did Libertas candidates fail to secure any seats but also Kathy Sinnot, who shares many conservative ideals with Ganley and Dana, lost her seat in the South constituency.

Secondly, these elections show up the ideological divide within the anti-Lisbon campaign. In television interviews from the count centre, Ganely expressed confidence that transfers from the Sinn Féin candidate would narrow the gap between him and the leading candidates. However, transfer rates showed little distinction between pro- and anti-Lisbon candiadtes, in this most anti-Lisbon part of the country. Clearly Sinn Fein's left-wing republican voters saw no great attraction in voting for a conservative pro-enterprise candidate (with an English accent as it happens!)

Finally, the failure of the Libertas campaign was a failure for the kind of expensive and negative campaigning often practiced in America. Ganley’s highly personalised attacks on candidates, a policy echoed by the party’s candiadtes in Dublin (Caroline Simons) and in East (Raymond O’Malley), seem not to have gone down well with the Irish electorate. Simons’ constant barracking of other candiates during a radio debate was very unpopular, while O’Malley’s solo run on ‘blue cards’ for ‘foreign’ workers did not go down well in border areas. No amount of money and slick media advisors could cover these candidates’ gaffes.

The Libertas experience, while a colourful sideshow in these elections, should reassure mainstream politicians that personal attacks and negative campaigning appeals only to a marginal constituency of the Irish electorate. This electoral failure also augurs well for the pro-Lisbon campaign.

It’s Goodbye Mary-Lou…but why?

By Dónal Hassett

Outgoing Sinn Féin MEP Mary Lou McDonald was seen by many as the poster girl for Sinn Fein's attempt to extend its political hegemony south across the border. Appointed as Gerry Adams number 2, McDonald’s clean cut image and soft-spoken accent went down very well with Southern voters and her spearheading of the party’s anti-Lisbon campaign was very successful, playing on her extensive knowledge of European affairs to add to a traditional protest vote. So where did it all go wrong for the Sinn Fein golden girl?

With the Dublin constituency losing a seat this time around, it was always going to be hard fo Sinn Fein to retain their seat but with the capital predicted to return an anti-Lisbon candidate, Mary Lou was seen to have the edge over Fianna Fáil’s Eoin Ryan, victim of the tide of public anger against the Soldiers of Destiny. Few commentators would have predicted socialist stalwart Joe Higgins’ surprise victory in the early hours of Monday morning. While Higgins is renowned for his extraordinary commitment, irreproachable integrity and witty eloquence, his victory cannot be purely attributed to his strength as a candidate but also to a failure on Sinn Fein's part to monopolise the radical protest vote in the capital. While Higgins’ Socialist Party held their own in the local elections and the radical left People before Profit Alliance made important gains, Sinn Fein actually lost council seats on Dublin City Council.

So what lies behind Sinn Fein's failure in this crucial constituency? Firstly, the concerns raised about Mary Lou’s attendance in Brussels and Strasbourg, the lowest of all of Ireland’s MEPs even when maternity leave was discounted, undermined her reputation as a hard worker and probably lost her votes to Joe Higgins, who is universally recognised as extremely hard-working. Sinn Fein's local problems in a former stronghold of theirs in Dublin’s South Inner City may have compounded Mary Lou’s problem. Esther Uzell, whose brother Joseph Rafferty was murdered by people linked to the IRA, led a campaign which succeeded in unseating high-profile Sinn Fein councillor Daithí Doolan for his alleged failure to help catch the killers. The backlash against Sinn Fein in their own backyard may have impacted on Mary Lou’s first preference vote.

However, local issues aside, perhaps it is simply a case of Sinn Fein having peaked after a sudden surge in the wake of the Good Friday agreement and now the party’s support has levelled out at circa 10% across the Republic. The last Dáil elections actually resulted in the loss of a seat, Seán Crowe in Tallaght, and Mary Lou’s own much mooted candidacy in Dublin Central was a big disappointment. Sinn Fein stalwart, Chirsty Burke’s poor performance (around 9.5%) in the Dublin Central by-election seems to confirm Sinn Fein's stagnation, a percentage mirrored by the much vaunted candidacy of Padraig Mac Lochlainn in the North West Euro constituency. Toireasa Ferris' large vote in the South constituency, while promising for the party, was doomed by Sinn Fein's notorious inability to attract transfers. Bairbre de Brún’s poll-topping performance north of the Border seems unlikely to be emulated in the South for years to come.

What then for Mary Lou? While the golden girl of ‘respectable republicanism’ is now left without an elected position, we are sure to see plenty of her in the upcoming Lisbon campaign and with the government looking increasingly unstable perhaps she will be knocking at doors in the near future (though not in Dublin Central) in her bid to get into the Dáil. Or might we see Mary Lou trying to fulfil that dearly-held Sinn Fein ambition of taking the Áras in time for the centenary celebrations of 1916, though I’m sure her former European colleagues, newly re-elected MEPs Mairéad McGuinness and Brian Crowley, may well give her a run for her money.

Europe- It’s the Final Countdown

By Dónal Hassett

Swedish 80’s pop band ‘Europe’ provide us with a fitting title for our final look at the Dublin constituency in the upcoming Euro-elections. As we enter the week of “The Final Countdown” the time has come to ask to whom the voters of our fair city will by saying “farewell”.

Few if any punters would dispute that Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell and Labour’s Proinsias de Rossa are home and dry in these elections. The real contest is to be seen in the three way battle for the final seat between sitting MEPs, Fianna Fáil’s Eoin Ryan and Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald, and Socialist Party leader Joe Higgins. While this seat is looking increasingly hard to call, there is no doubt but that transfers will dictate the outcome.

Eoin Ryan is sure to attract transfers from his running mate, Dublin Lord Mayor, Eibhlin Byrne but these alone will not be enough to save his seat. Fianna Fail's coalition partners, the Green Party, have refused to call for a voting pact but Deirdre de Burca’s transfers are Eoin Ryan’s last hope. The other pro-Lisbon candidates, Gay Mitchell and Prionsias De Rossa, will not have large surpluses to transfer on to Eoin Ryan so Ryan is reliant on a high middle-class vote running scared of Sinn Fein and the Socialists and transfers from the Green candidate. While Eoin Ryan has quite the reputation as the comeback kid, it’s hard to see how Fianna Fail can salvage this seat with the tide so against them.

This leaves a two-horse race between Joe Higgins, the old socialist stalwart, and Sinn Fein's Vice-President Mary Lou Mc Donald for what some have called the ‘anti-Lisbon’ seat. While Sinn Fein are known to find it hard to attract transfers the Socialists are not immune to this phenomenon either. Polls indicate that Mary Lou is set to gain around 13% of the first preference vote putting her 4% ahead of Joe Higgins. It’s hard to see how Higgins will be able to narrow this gap as preferences from anti-Lisbon campaigner Patricia Mc Kenna are likely to be split between the two candidates.

So as the Day of Reckoning approaches, it seems that Eoin Ryan will be staying at home in Dublin come June 7th while the rest of Dublin’s Euro-team will be returning to Brussels and Strasbourg. However, as we all know, the only poll that can be trusted is the one on election day.