Alan Kelly to just make it, with Brian Crowley and Seán Kelly topping the poll down South!

By Séamus Mac Suibhne

The best approach to predicting an election is to probably adopt an age old exam tip, something that young people everywhere will have heard countless times. Answer what you know first, tackle the difficult subjects later. So one prediction I can safely make is that Brian Crowley will once again be elected as an MEP for the South. The anti-Fianna Fáil sentiment that’s sweeping through the country at present seems to have had no effect whatsoever on his popularity as he’s been constantly polling well above all other candidates down South. This is nothing new of course. Since first being elected in 1994 he has been re-elected twice since, with a very high percentage of the vote on both occasions. Not only is he leader of the Fianna Fail delegation in the European Parliament, he is also president of the European Party UEN (Union of Europe of the Nations). He is arguably Ireland’s preeminent and most experienced member of the European Parliament, with a prolific political career in Europe behind him. Barring a complete catastrophe, he will definitely be the first to be elected.

Another safe answer I can give is that Fine Gael will definitely have a candidate elected. The only question is who. Based on polling data to date, and with a much greater profile amongst the ordinary public, I’d have to go for Seán Kelly to get elected next. Having served as president of the GAA, even those with little or no interest in politics will at least recognise the face and name come June 5th. He will certainly appeal to a wider audience as a result of this, and may be seen more as an “honest daycent fella” as opposed to “wan of those politicians”. This should be enough to see off sitting MEP Colm Burke for the Fine Gael seat.

The final safe answer I can give is to tell you who I think definitely won’t get elected. Firstly, neither Maurice Sexton nor Dr. Alexander Stafford has any chance of getting elected, although Dr. Stafford has run an impressive campaign to date. Ned O’Keeffe TD has no realistic chance of being elected either, with any votes for Brian Crowley unlikely to contain transfers to himself, as the majority of voters will be voting for Brian Crowley personally as opposed to voting for Fianna Fail this time around.

Senator Dan Boyle of the Green Party will have to contend with some of the “collateral damage” of an unpopular government, as he put it himself, and will have no chance of being elected either. Cllr Toireasa Ferris of Sinn Féin should ultimately come up short, as Sinn Fein would hardly be expected to profit from any transfers of votes from either of the main parties. Their staunch anti-Lisbon sentiments may just come back to haunt them in these European elections.

Now this is just like those difficult final parts of questions in an exam. You really wish you could be sure of your answer, but you’re just going to have to give it your best shot and see how it goes! One of Kathy Sinott MEP (Independent), Senator Alan Kelly (Labour) or Colm Burke MEP (Fine Gael) will take the final seat, and I’m going to go for Alan Kelly. I doubt that Colm Burke has the profile outside of Cork to get elected, as he was only appointed to the Parliament in 2007 following Simon Coveney being elected to the Dáil in the general election. So I predict it will be a very close race between Alan Kelly and Kathy Sinott. Riding on the crest of the current Labour wave, I have a gut feeling that Alan Kelly will just make it however. He’s had a very clever and media savvy campaign to date, with everything from rap songs on YouTube to endorsements from ex-Ireland rugby stars, and it should be enough to get the young Senator over the line this weekend.

Sinn Fein will secure seat in the South

By Catherine Moore

There are ten candidates vying for the three seats in the South Constituency.

The candidates are: Dan Boyle of the Green Party, Colm Burke of Fine Gael, Sean Kelly of Fine Gael, Brian Crowley of Fianna Fail, Ned O’Keeffe of Fianna Fail, Kathy Sinnott Independent, Alexander Stafford Independent, Maurice Sexton Independent, Toireasa Ferris of Sinn Féin and Alan Kelly of Labour.

The current seats are held by Brian Crowley Fianna Fail, Kathy Sinnott, Independent and Colm Burke, Fine Gael.

The following are my predictions for the election:

With the current economic situation, and scandals such as the Anglo Irish Bank situation, I do not think Fianna Fail will retain their seat. The feeling on the ground in the South is that people are very unhappy with the current government. Whether the government is the cause or the scapegoat of the recession is debatable. However, what is not debatable is that people are angry at the government and I do not think Brian Crowley will retain his seat.

Crowley will loose his seat to Alan Kelly, Labour. Aside from the recent Irish Times opinion poll showing Labour coming in second to Fine Gael, Alan Kelly has a good solid campaign behind him. Voters are inclined to back this Tipperary man. He is a young fresh candidate which will work in his favour in this time when the country is seeking change. His by now infamous rap song has ensured that younger voters know his name.

Colm Burke of Fine Gael will retain his seat. The Irish Times opinion poll shows Fine Gael topping the poll. There will be a good fight between Burke and Sean Kelly, the other Fine Gael candidate, but I think that Burke, an ex Lord Mayor of Cork, will not be short of support.

Kathy Sinnott, Independent, will lose her seat to Toireasa Ferris, Sinn Fein. Ferris has been very visible and audible throughout the elections. She also has the advantage of being quite easy on the eye and this had definitely caught attention. I saw a conversation on Facebook between two male friends today, saying they were defiantly voting for her because of her "hotness".

On a more serious note though, North Kerry and West and Southern Limerick are traditionally areas where Sinn Fein enjoys much support. Toireasa is young, well educated, opinionated and like Alan Kelly, I think she will benefit from voters wanting change.

Summary of my predictions
1. Colm Burke, Fine Gael
2. Alan Kelly, Labour
3. Toireasa Ferris, Sinn Féin