CATCH 33: A SPLIT VOTE THE GREATEST THREAT TO UNIONIST DOMINANCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND?

By Sam Law, Feresha Bayramova, Katie Murphy.

FOLLOWING THE departure from the DUP of Jim Allister in 2007, the largest political party in the country was left without the representation of an MEP. Two years later and the inter-unionist rift has done nothing but intensify. Standing beneath his own, self-founded banner of the “Traditional Unionist Voice,” Allister finds himself running against both the DUP's Dianne Dodds and Jim Nicholson of the newly re-energised UUP/Conservative Party alliance. Although Allister’s hopes for election success remain purely speculative, an altogether greater issue has arisen; that of a split Unionist vote – the guaranteed success of the DUP within the Unionist community not entirely under threat, but their previous placing as the party at the pinnacle of Northern politics having become seriously tenable.

Comment from within parties and speculation in both the media and the public has begun to intensify in recent weeks, with each faction of the tripartite split providing its own individual and significant appeals. The traditional two-party dynamic between the DUP and UUP had been disrupted in recent years with the beginning of dialogue, for the first time, between the former and Sinn Féin marking their move towards more moderate political ground that would previously have been occupied by the former. Filling the space at the hard right, the TUV present a more hard line stance than the DUP did, but their appeal should not be underestimated considering the 29% who voted against the Good Friday agreement on its first introduction. With their backs to the wall and facing the choice of either the broadening of their appeal or obliteration in the polls, the alignment of the UUP with the British Conservative Party could prove to be either an ingenious or an entirely futile move. Recent tensions between the DUP and UUP have been based both on the issue of the severely split Unionist vote as well as apprehension towards the Conservatives, whose policies are likely to be anything but favourable towards the economy of the North as it currently stands. On the flip side, their dominance in the mainland UK could prove to be particularly transferable at this time of recession; bias in the English tabloids touting them as a preferable to Brown’s Labour without any real evidential backing, but without the necessity of it.

With the ranks on the Nationalist/Republican side still considerably biased towards Sinn Fein and many detractors pointing out that the SDLP present a toothless threat, it is unlikely that de Brun will face any such split in the vote and could emerge as the key beneficiary of such a divided election. There is no small irony in the fact that Allister’s ideological separation of himself from Sinn Fein could lead to their most comprehensive election result to date. With no particular resolution looking to be presenting itself among the unionist ranks, however, it looks like Sinn Fein could see their greatest foe become their best friend too.