By Séamus Mac Suibhne
The best approach to predicting an election is to probably adopt an age old exam tip, something that young people everywhere will have heard countless times. Answer what you know first, tackle the difficult subjects later. So one prediction I can safely make is that Brian Crowley will once again be elected as an MEP for the South. The anti-Fianna Fáil sentiment that’s sweeping through the country at present seems to have had no effect whatsoever on his popularity as he’s been constantly polling well above all other candidates down South. This is nothing new of course. Since first being elected in 1994 he has been re-elected twice since, with a very high percentage of the vote on both occasions. Not only is he leader of the Fianna Fail delegation in the European Parliament, he is also president of the European Party UEN (Union of Europe of the Nations). He is arguably Ireland’s preeminent and most experienced member of the European Parliament, with a prolific political career in Europe behind him. Barring a complete catastrophe, he will definitely be the first to be elected.
Another safe answer I can give is that Fine Gael will definitely have a candidate elected. The only question is who. Based on polling data to date, and with a much greater profile amongst the ordinary public, I’d have to go for Seán Kelly to get elected next. Having served as president of the GAA, even those with little or no interest in politics will at least recognise the face and name come June 5th. He will certainly appeal to a wider audience as a result of this, and may be seen more as an “honest daycent fella” as opposed to “wan of those politicians”. This should be enough to see off sitting MEP Colm Burke for the Fine Gael seat.
The final safe answer I can give is to tell you who I think definitely won’t get elected. Firstly, neither Maurice Sexton nor Dr. Alexander Stafford has any chance of getting elected, although Dr. Stafford has run an impressive campaign to date. Ned O’Keeffe TD has no realistic chance of being elected either, with any votes for Brian Crowley unlikely to contain transfers to himself, as the majority of voters will be voting for Brian Crowley personally as opposed to voting for Fianna Fail this time around.
Senator Dan Boyle of the Green Party will have to contend with some of the “collateral damage” of an unpopular government, as he put it himself, and will have no chance of being elected either. Cllr Toireasa Ferris of Sinn Féin should ultimately come up short, as Sinn Fein would hardly be expected to profit from any transfers of votes from either of the main parties. Their staunch anti-Lisbon sentiments may just come back to haunt them in these European elections.
Now this is just like those difficult final parts of questions in an exam. You really wish you could be sure of your answer, but you’re just going to have to give it your best shot and see how it goes! One of Kathy Sinott MEP (Independent), Senator Alan Kelly (Labour) or Colm Burke MEP (Fine Gael) will take the final seat, and I’m going to go for Alan Kelly. I doubt that Colm Burke has the profile outside of Cork to get elected, as he was only appointed to the Parliament in 2007 following Simon Coveney being elected to the Dáil in the general election. So I predict it will be a very close race between Alan Kelly and Kathy Sinott. Riding on the crest of the current Labour wave, I have a gut feeling that Alan Kelly will just make it however. He’s had a very clever and media savvy campaign to date, with everything from rap songs on YouTube to endorsements from ex-Ireland rugby stars, and it should be enough to get the young Senator over the line this weekend.
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