McGuiness will win it

By Brigid O Gorman

There is very little doubt over who will top the poll in Ireland East this weekend. All polls indicate that vote-getting supremo Mairead McGuiness will top the poll; many polls have indicated that she will gain a third of first preference votes.

The second seat in the constituency will almost certainly go to incumbent Fianna Fail MEP Liam Aylward. There has been some speculation in the media that anti-Fianna Fail sentiment may lead to Aylward losing his seat but opinion polls indicate that he will retain it and that he will come second in the poll. His long career in politics, his personal popularity and the fact that he is the member of a political family which is well used to running election campaigns will all work in his favour. As will the fact that his running mate in the northern half of the constituency is the popular young TD Thomas Byrne; he should be a decent vote sweeper without causing any threat to Aylward’s seat.

The real interest in the East is in the final seat. The retirement from EU politics of Fine Gael’s Avril Doyle meant that the fight for this seat was left wide open. The only realistic contenders are Labour’s Nessa Childers and Fine Gael's John Paul Phelan. Fine Gael would be sorely disappointed to lose this seat and they may benefit from the anti-government sentiment and from transfers from McGuinness if she gets a large enough first preference vote. However, it would require masterful vote management on their part. Retaining two seats in a three seat constituency would not be an easy task for any party. Labour's Nessa Childers has been running a very active campaign and has consistently polled third in the opinion polls. This third seat will be decided on the transfers each candidate receives and on the size of Childer’s first preference vote.

Prediction: Mairead McGuinness (Fine Gael); Liam Aylward (Fianna Fail); Nessa Childers (Labour)