By Eoghan Dockrell
Despite the two candidates' protestations that their seats are not safe, both Labour's Proinsias De Rossa and Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell will (exempting some last minute campaign implosion) easily secure a seat in the European Parliament.
The next question to be tackled is who will snatch the final seat. For a while it appeared to be a two horse race between Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin and Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fail. Certainly the media covered the election as if this were the case. However, the most recent opinion polls suggest Socialist party candidate, Joe Higgins is hot on Mary Lou’s heels and will be in the fray right until the bitter end.
I think Eoin Ryan will fail to triumph over his rivals. Firstly, given his association with Fianna Fáil, he will struggle to attract the transfers or preferences desperately needed to push him past the post. His chances will be further weakened by perhaps the poor party strategy of fielding two Fianna Fail candidates in an already crowded race and in an environment not amenable to candidates connected with the Government's parties. Nor will the notoriously efficient Fianna Fail campaign machine be able to galvanise sufficient support to do the business for their candidate.
Ultimately, I think Mary Lou will snatch the final seat. At the end of the count everything will hinge on the amount of preferences and transfers the two candidates can attract. My view is that Mary Lou’s pile will be bigger. Generally speaking, neither party is the preferred choice for moderate voters when it comes to allocating preferences. Looking at past elections, Joe Higgins has garnered few transfers in comparison to other candidates. In this area Mary Lou should have the edge and by extension, find herself in a better position when the count is concluded.
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