The elusive third party

By Sam Law, Feresha Bayramova and Katie Murphy

An open race for Northern Ireland's third seat

Although the political status quo in the North can hardly be said to have changed drastically over the period of this European election, there have been several significant political developments; the split of the Unionist vote has left the previously unthinkable prospect of Sinn Féin becoming the country’s biggest party a looming possibility, the hard-line power race between the DUP and TUV has done nothing but intensify (perhaps at the expense of the peace process) and the lot of smaller parties has been potentially significantly reduced (the previously significant SDLP having slipped further into that category too).

It’s interesting to make a prediction about who’ll win seats, primarily in the context of which of the two heavy hitters will come out on top. Although both de Brun and Dodds will hardly worry about having positions come Monday morning, there could be a fascinating change in power-dynamic if the former comes out on top. Further, the availability of the third position remains remarkably up in the air. Although the UUP/Conservative Jim Nicholson remains favourite to pick up the seat, the unknown quantity of the Allister/TUV vote could potentially (and many nationalists will remark, hopefully) cause more of an even divide with the heavily-criticised UUP, clearing the way for Alban McGuinness to seize the outside chance and the open third seat.